Virtual States and National Security: A Time for Reappraisal (PDF)
by Stephan A. Schwartz and John B. Alexander, Ph.D.
Since the end of the Cold War, scenarios which attempt to predict the threats to America’s national security seem to recognize that, from the ashes of the old bipolar world, a complex multipolar geopolitical phoenix has emerged. But, upon closer examination, the first premise of almost all such analyses continues to be the nation-state as the overriding factor in international calculations. It is a concept so hallowed by time and tradition that it is almost invisible as a topic for discussion. But is it a premise that is still valid? Is it other nations we most have to fear?
The answer to that question is one of the most important things we can know about the future, because it will dictate how a large portion of our national resources are allocated. As a partial list, the budgets of the State, Defense, Commerce, and Agriculture Departments, as well as a multi-billion dollar stream of decisions in the private sector must all be predicated on this answer. If nation states are not going to be the principal threat, or are not going to be threats in traditional ways then policies, and organizational structures, need to be developed reflecting this new reality. Looked at this way, one factor arises above all others.
